Surplus for Swedish central government in August

7 September 2016 - Press release

Swedish central government payments resulted in a surplus of SEK 26.9 billion in August, to be compared with the Debt Office’s forecast of SEK 20.6 billion. The difference is mainly due to larger tax income.

Tax income was SEK 4 billion higher than calculated, mainly explained by higher supplementary tax payments.

The Debt Office's net lending to government agencies was SEK 0.3 billion higher than forecast.

Interest payments on central government debt were SEK 0.6 billion lower than calculated.

For the twelve-month period up to the end of August 2016, central government payments resulted in a surplus of SEK 61.8 billion.

Central government debt amounted to SEK 1,366 billion at the end of August.

Accumulative forecast deviation June–August

The accumulated forecast deviation since the previous forecast in June amounts to SEK 13 billion. Of this SEK 9 billion is due to higher tax income. The preliminary debited taxes on wages, consumption and corporate profits have developed approximately as calculated. Virtually all of the deviation can instead be explained by higher supplementary tax payments.

The first preliminary tax statements for 2015 indicate an outcome that is well in line with the Debt Office's forecast. This means that it is not likely that the larger supplementary tax payments are related to taxes for the previous year.

The Debt Office's interpretation is instead that it largely concerns the current deposit interest rate on tax accounts, which creates incentives to pay taxes earlier than otherwise. There are no restrictions on how large deposits that may be made, which means that tax accounts are also used as a form of savings. Therefore the outcome for tax income becomes difficult to interpret. It is uncertain if or when the funds in the tax accounts will be debited.

The outcome for September will be published on 7 October at 9.30 a.m. On 26 October the Debt Office will publish new forecasts for the Swedish economy, the budget balance and government borrowing.

Contact

Tord Arvidsson, Senior Analyst +46 (0)8 613 47 53
Robert Sennerdal, Press Secretary, +46 (0)8 613 46 94

Net borrowing requirement¹ (SEK million)
  Outcome August Forecast August Dev. August Acc.    Dev.2 Outcome 12-month
Net borrowing requirement  -26 874 -20 633 -6 241 -13 467 -61 746
Primary borrowing requirement excl. net lending3 -24 010 -18 078 -5 932 -13 539 -69 261
Net lending to agencies etc. -3 232 -3 542 310 796 -1 264
Interest payments on central government debt 368 987 -619 -724 8 779
  - Interest on loans in SEK 189 910 -721 -878 9 330
  - Interest on loans in foreign currency 137 -1 138 186 448
  - Realised currency gains and losses 42 78 -36 -31 -1 000
1 The net borrowing requirement corresponds to the budget balance with opposite sign.
2 Sum of monthly forecast deviations since latest forecast (June 2016).
3 Net of the state's primary expenditure and income excluding net lending to agencies.

Sweden's central government debt August 2016, pdf

More data on the borrowing requirement and government debt

The monthly outcome of the central government net borrowing requirement is included in the official statistics of Sweden.