Increased tax income decreases net borrowing requirement

16 June 2015 - Press release

Increased tax income is expected to reduce the net borrowing requirement this year and next year. Borrowing in government bonds and inflation-linked bonds will be unchanged according to the Debt Office’s report Central government borrowing - forecast and analysis 2015:2.

The Debt Office expects Swedish GDP to grow by 2.6 per cent this year and 2.5 per cent next year. That is 0.4 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous forecast from February. For 2015, it is primarily private and public consumption that has been revised upward. The net borrowing requirement is estimated to be SEK 71 billion in 2015. That is 10 billion lower than in the previous forecast published in February. The decrease is mainly explained by higher tax income. Net borrowing requirement for 2016 is expected to be 25 billion, which is SEK 9 billion lower than in the previous forecast. Tax income increases by SEK 23 billion, mainly due to tax increases. The increased taxation is however matched by new expenditure reforms in the same order. In addition taxes increase because the tax bases are growing slightly faster than previously estimated.

Central government net lending is estimated at -1.4 per cent as a proportion of GDP in 2015 and -0.6 per cent in 2016.

The central government debt is expected to be SEK 1 476 billion at the end of 2015 and 1 492 billion at the end of 2016. This corresponds to 36 per cent of GDP in 2015, and 35 per cent in 2016.

Net borrowing requirement and debt (SEK billion)

                     

2015

2016

Net borrowing requirement (budget deficit)

71

25

Net lending, per cent of GDP

-1,4 %

-0,6 %

Central government debt

1,476

1,492

Central government debt as percentage of GDP

36 %

35 %

Central government debt including on-lending and money-market assets as a percentage of GDP

29 %

29 %

Unchanged auction volume

The auction volume in government bonds remains at SEK 4 billion per auction during the forecast period. This means that borrowing in government bonds will amount to SEK 86 billion this year and SEK 88 billion next year, which are the same levels as in February.

Borrowing in Treasury bills also remains unchanged. The Debt Office expects to issue an average of SEK 17.5 billion per auction. The stock is expected to grow to SEK 135 billion at the end of 2016.

The issue volume of inflation-linked bonds is SEK 1 billion per auction, which is the same level as before. In total the Debt Office will issue SEK 17 and 18 billion respectively in 2015 and 2016.

Borrowing  (SEK billion)

                     

2015

2016

Government bonds

86

88

Inflation-linked bonds

17

18

T-bills

125

135

Foreign-currency bonds

93

93

–      of which on-lending to the Riksbank

53

71

Central government borrowing - forecast and analysis 2015:2, pdf

Contacts

Thomas Olofsson, Head of Debt Management, +46 8 613 47 82
Linda Rudberg, Public Relations Officer, +46 8 613 45 38