Government finances gradually stronger as growth recovers

17 June 2014 - Press release

Swedish central government finances will improve gradually as faster economic growth leads to higher tax income. The Swedish National Debt Office expects the net borrowing requirement (budget deficit) to decrease from SEK 61 billion this year to SEK 11 billion next year.

The central government net borrowing requirement for 2014 is SEK 6 billion lower than the Debt Office’s previous forecast. The reduction is mainly due to higher tax income.

The 2015 net borrowing requirement is also estimated to decrease by SEK 6 billion compared with the previous forecast. Tax income increases at a faster rate between the years as the economy gains strength, while expenditure develops at a modest pace.

The Debt Office expects GDP to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2014 and 3.0 per cent in 2015. This is an increase of 0.1 percentage point and 0.3 percentage point, respectively, from the previous forecast.

– The Swedish economy benefits as international demand picks up, but the main drivers of growth are private consumption and investments, says Hans Lindblad, Director General of the Debt Office. This leads to an increase in central government income from VAT and other taxes.

Net borrowing requirement and debt

 SEK billion

20142015

Net borrowing requirement

61

11

Central government debt

1,365

1,372

Central government debt, % of GDP

36 %

35 %

Central government debt including on-lending and money-market assets, % of GDP

30 %

29 %

Borrowing in government bonds is unchanged at SEK 77 billion a year in 2014 and 2015. The volume per auction remains at SEK 3.5 billion.

At present there are no plans to replace the 25-year government bond with a new bond with longer maturity as the interest in such a loan is limited.

Borrowing in inflation-linked bonds is also unchanged compared with the previous forecast, as is borrowing in foreign currency on behalf of the government. Borrowing in T-bills will decrease somewhat.

Borrowing

SEK billion    

20142015

Government bonds

77

77

Inflation-linked bonds

17

18

T-bills

110

150

Foreign-currency bonds

83

79

  –    of which on-lending to the Riksbank

56

52

Central government borrowing – forecast and analysis 2014:2

For further information, please contact:
Thomas Olofsson, Head of Debt Management, +46 8 613 47 82
Linda Wik, Public Relations Officer, +46 8 613 46 18