Sweden's budget returns to surplus in 2011

16 November 2010 - Press release

 

A stronger economy and increased tax income will lead to the central government budget being close to balance in 2010. In 2011 and 2012, there will be a surplus. Consequently, borrowing will be reduced in the coming years.

The Swedish economy appears to be stronger than in our previous forecast, in particular in 2010. The recovery in Sweden has been stronger than in the Euro area and the United States.

The Debt Office's forecast shows that the budget deficit will decrease to SEK 5 billion in 2010. The budget is thus almost balanced. This strong development continues in 2011 and 2012 when the forecast indicates a central government budget surplus of SEK 18 billion and SEK 78 billion respectively. The forecast for 2012 includes assumed income from sale of state-owned assets amounting to SEK 35 billion.

The budget deficit in 2010 will decrease compared with the previous forecast mainly because we no longer expect any additional on-lending to Iceland and Latvia. The central government budget surpluses in 2011 and 2012 are mainly due to increased tax income due to the strong recovery of the Swedish economy.

Reduced borrowing requirement

The strong development of central government finances means that the borrowing requirement decreases both this year and in 2011 compared with our June forecast. The Debt Office gives priority to borrowing in nominal government bonds, although auction volumes still decrease from next year onwards. Borrowing in T-bills and inflation-linked bonds has already been adapted to a reduced borrowing requirement and will remain at low levels. Overall, central government borrowing including refunding of maturing loans will be SEK 88 billion in 2010, SEK 83 billion in 2011 and SEK 68 billion in 2012.

The issue volume of nominal government bonds will decrease from SEK 2.5 billion to SEK 2 billion per auction from next year onwards. On 9 February 2011 we will introduce a new ten-year bond, loan1054, maturing on 1 June 2022.

The T-bill stock will be reduced from an estimated SEK 105 billion to an average of SEK 99 billion this year. In 2011, the average stock is estimated at SEK 91 billion, compared with SEK 85 billion in the June forecast. In 2012, we estimate an average stock of SEK 72 billion.

Borrowing in inflation-linked bonds will remain at SEK 9 billion in 2010 and SEK 6 billion in 2011 and 2012. A new inflation-linked bond, loan 3108, will be introduced on 15 September 2011.

Foreign currency bond borrowing will total SEK 32 billion this year and SEK 51 billion next year. This is a reduction of SEK 25 billion in 2011 compared with the June forecast. We are planning foreign currency borrowing of SEK 29 billion for 2012. During 2011 and 2012, we will only raise foreign currency loans to refund maturing loans to the Riksbank.

Central government debt around 30 per cent of GDP

Central government debt will be SEK 1,155 billion at the end of 2010 and will then decrease to SEK 1,116 billion by the end of 2011 and SEK 1,038 billion in 2012. This corresponds to 35, 33 and 29 per cent of GDP.

We estimate central government debt including the Debt Office's financial assets in foreign currency at SEK 1,060 billion at the end of 2010, SEK 1,021 billion in 2011 and SEK 943 billion in 2012. This corresponds to 32, 30 and 26 per cent of GDP.

Publishing dates in 2011

In 2011 we will publish two Central Government Borrowing reports:

2011:1 Wednesday May 18, at 09:30 am

2011:2 Wednesday October 26, at 09:30 am

As it is election year this year, the Government presented its Budget Bill on 12 October. In order to take into account the content of the budget, we have published this Central Government Borrowing report later than we usually do. We normally publish three reports per year, the first at the end of February. As it is a relatively short period to February, we will postpone publication to May. This forecast will replace both the February and June reports.

Further information can be obtained from

Håkan Carlsson, budget forecast, phone +46 8 613 47 33

Thomas Olofsson, funding, phone +46 8 613 47 82