In-depth analysis of the outcome in December – accumulated outcome in line with forecast

26 January 2012

The net borrowing requirement was SEK 10.3 billion lower than expected in December. The large difference is mainly explained by shifts in payments between months. The accumulated outcome is in line with forecast.

Tax income has developed as predicted over the past three months although there are relatively large differences within different tax types (see Table below). The large difference in December can mainly be contributed to the fact that the last tax refund payment of the year related to excess tax was lower than expected. This affected the annual outcome of 2011 directly, but is unlikely to have any greater impact on 2012. Consumption based taxes have developed weaker than forecasted, which could indicate a weaker growth in household consumption. Wage based and corporate taxes are in line with the October forecast.

The Debt Office net lending to authorities has been affected by deposits and withdrawals made by Legal, Financial and Administrative Services Agency on behalf of the Nuclear Waste Fund related to temporary deposited funds that are normally invested in government bonds. These kinds of transactions can have large effects on the outcome specific months but they do not affect the underlying government finances.

Interest rate payments on the government debt have been higher than calculated, which is mainly explained by larger exchange rate losses arising due to rollovers with derivatives in our benchmark portfolio.

Differences outcome net borrowing requirement Oct - Dec 2011  
  Oct Nov Dec   Sum
Tax income 1,9 1,0 -3,4   -0,5
Wage based taxes 0,0 0,3 0,3   0,6
Consumption based taxes 3,3 -0,4 2,1   5,0
Corporate taxes 0,5 -1,1 -0,2   -0,7
Additional tax -2,0 2,2 -5,6   -5,4
Transfer payments 0,1 0,1 0,0   0,2
Dividends/Sale of state assets -1,0 1,0 0,0   -0,1
Miscellaneous -3,6 1,8 2,7   1,0
Net lending 1,0 9,4 -11,5   -1,1
Interest rate payments -1,0 0,5 1,8   1,3
Sum -2,7 13,8 -10,3   0,8
All values in SEK billion and in net borrowing requirement terms.    
A positive value means that the government has to borrow more than expected.  

Further information can be obtained from:

Sofia Olsson, +46 8 613 47 30